Show Notes – Revolution Radio 2023-12-01 #113

(2:45)

(15:00)

My comments on bank loans, transfer of wealth and property. Be careful. Remember, he is selling so-called insider courses.

(18:45)

(26:00)

(33:30)

The Sun Sets on Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

Every drop has already been squeezed from financialization, and we see the decline globally, the deflation of China’s real estate bubble being one example. There is only so much financialization to be done before the edifice collapses under its own weight.

Financialization greatly expanded Commercial Real Estate, as low-cost credit and the churning of assets into income streams that could be commoditized and sold incentivized the over-building of CRE, from strip malls to office towers to retail. The square footage of CRE per capita in the US is many times higher than the totals in other developed nations. 

Financialization drove over-building, and so CRE that was constructed to be financialized, not because there was high demand for the space, has generated a massive overhang / surplus at the same time that demand for office space has crashed due to the remote-work catalyst of the pandemic.

https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/the-sun-sets-on-commercial-real-estate

Cases to Learn From

(40:45)

In re Banks
2023 California Courts of Appeals

In July 2020, a correctional sergeant was processing mail in the prison mailroom and searched two large manila envelopes addressed to inmate Arlonzo Banks. The sergeant intercepted the envelopes in the prison mailroom, and inmate Banks was issued a rules violation report charging him with conspiracy to introduce a controlled substance into prison for distribution or sale. During the investigation, inmate Banks tried to ask the sergeant who issued the rules violation report, “‘What, if any, evidence demonstrates I agreed with another individual to introduce a controlled substance into the facility?'” The hearing officer deemed the question irrelevant, but the Court of Appeals found Banks’s question was “spot on:” the record contained no evidence of the first element of conspiracy, namely, the existence of an agreement between at least two persons. The Court therefore affirmed the trial court’s grant of inmate Banks’s petition for writ of habeas corpus that vacated a guilty finding of conspiracy.

https://law.justia.com/cases/california/court-of-appeal/2023/c098247.html

(47:00)

Pennsylvania v. Weeden
2023 Supreme Court of Pennsylvania

At trial, a veteran detective testified about the police department’s use of a gunfire detection program, “ShotSpotter.” 

The issue this case presented for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s review was whether a printed summary created by a computerized system, “ShotSpotter,” which contemporaneously collected data regarding potential gunshots and transmitted the same to the subscribing police force, fell within the purview of the Confrontation Clause when used as evidence in the course of a criminal prosecution. 

https://law.justia.com/cases/pennsylvania/supreme-court/2023/19-wap-2022.html

Hour 2

Oregon v. C. P.
2023 Oregon Supreme Court

The statute controls with a little latitude

C.P. struck the victim on her head with a mallet, causing significant injuries. The issue on review was whether the juvenile court misconstrued the governing statute, ORS 419A.258, in ordering disclosure of confidential records in youth’s file to the victim before youth’s delinquency dispositional hearing. 

The Oregon Supreme Court concluded after review of the text, context, and legislative history of ORS 419A.258 that the statute, properly construed, gave juvenile courts some discretion in weighing the interests at stake before determining whether and to what extent disclosure was necessary to serve a legitimate need of the person seeking disclosure under the circumstances of a given case. 

https://law.justia.com/cases/oregon/supreme-court/2023/s069912.html

(6:10)

Browne v. State
2023 Maryland Supreme Court

The Doctrine of Chances

The [Supreme] Court of Chancery reversed the judgment of the circuit court convicting Defendant of murder and child abuse, holding that the circuit court erred in admitting evidence of Defendant’s prior conviction for child abuse resulting in the death of his infant son, and a new trial was required.

Defendant was convicted of second-degree murder, first-degree child abuse resulting in death, and other crimes related to the death of a seventeen-month-old. The appellate division affirmed, holding that the evidence of the death of Defendant’s son was admissible under the doctrine of chances. The Supreme Court reversed, holding that the State “stretched the doctrine of chances beyond its limits,” and therefore, the circuit court abused its discretion in admitting evidence about the death of Defendant’s son. The Court remanded the case for a new trial.

https://law.justia.com/cases/maryland/court-of-appeals/2023/2-23.html

Foreclosure Defense Education
Generic Concepts

(15:00)

15 minutes loaded with insights.

Economics 101 by Bill

The aquarium and punch bowl.

(31:00)

Watch out for the turd in the punch bowl.

What Happens When Millions of Renters Can No Longer Afford High Rents and Move Back Home?

Although few believe it is even in the realm of possibility, in an extended downturn, 8 million renters could vacate now-unaffordable rentals for far more affordable living spaces in other dwellings. As the saying goes, necessity is the mother of invention, which in the case of unaffordable rents in a recession, we can modify to necessity is the mother of radically downsizing expenses by any means available.

Rents tend to be as stubborn as human nature. Landlords tend to believe the highest rent ever received is the “fair price,” and the majority will cling to this fantasy long past the point at which a rational assessment of market conditions would suggest a 25% reduction in asking rent would be the bare minimum to snare a tenant for the vacant flat.

If the 2000-02 recession is any guide, tenants will cling on to their over-priced flats as long as possible, hoping for a job offer that never transpires. The unemployment checks aren’t enough, temp gigs dry up, savings run out and the inability to continue paying sky-high rent finally forces a move.

No one remembers what happens in a deep, prolonged recession, and we’re long overdue to find out what happens. What’s no longer affordable is eventually jettisoned, including high-rent homes and apartments.

https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/what-happens-when-millions-of-renters

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